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Running on empty

DON MACPHERSON

Montreal Gazette Thursday, May 30, 2002

Premier Bernard Landry, who is rarely at a loss for words, admits to being "perplexed" by the apparent rise in popularity of Mario Dumont's Action Démocratique du Québec.

Poll results published last weekend suggest that the ADQ now is the most popular of the three parties represented in the National Assembly, while Landry's Parti Québécois has dropped into third place, with the support of only 23 per cent of the voters.

How bad is that? The PQ happened to get exactly that share of the over-all vote in the 1970 general election and won only seven seats in the Assembly, which then had 108.

It must be galling to Landry, who finally became premier at 64 after being in and out of government in senior posts for a quarter-century, that Quebecers apparently prefer to have running their government a 32-year-old who has never been a cabinet minister or run anything bigger than what until recently was his own one-man show.

But it's obvious that Landry has no explanation for the sudden rise of the ADQ and his party's fall. It's also obvious he has no idea what to do about it, any more than he has a plan for achieving sovereignty.

"Things that inflate too fast in politics can deflate as quickly," he says hopefully of the ADQ's 36-per-cent support in the SOM poll conducted May 17-22 for La Presse and Quebec City's Le Soleil.

But he doesn't seem to know what pin he might use to prick the ADQ's balloon.

He jabs away with the fact that 100,000 jobs were created in Quebec in only the first four months of the year, an exceptional economic performance, the best of any province; after all, he knows that Quebec governments are usually re-elected after the unemployment rate has gone down.

But the voters don't seem to credit his government with the current relative prosperity. Another historical trend, that Quebec governments don't get a third term, seems to be prevailing, even though, unlike the two previous two-term governments, Landry's government has not had to go through a recession in its second term.

He and his MNAs say the government has to explain itself better and listen more to the voters. But they've been saying those things for more than six months now. Either the government isn't doing what it keeps saying it has to do, or it isn't working.

In historical terms, the present government is not an especially old one; it's been only 42 months since the last general election, which is seven months less than the average interval between general elections since 1970.

But already this government seems to be on its deathbed, helplessly awaiting the inevitable when it can no longer put off the election. It has gone beyond being a lame duck to become a Francisco Franco of governments, after the Spanish dictator whose deathwatch seemed to last an eternity. As with the daily bulletins on Franco's condition, all that can be said of the PQ government is that it is still alive.

It has no legislative agenda to speak of; even Jean-Pierre Charbonneau's half-baked schemes of political "reform" seem to have been abandoned, for the most part. One wonders how the Assembly will fill its sitting time if the government puts off the election until next year. And it appears not to have any great plans for the future.

In recent months, it has given the impression that if it has any purpose for remaining in power, it is to enrich the premier's friends by allowing them to trade on their access to him by inserting themselves as otherwise superfluous lobbyists.

Trying to explain away the ADQ's apparent popularity on the weekend, the vice-president of the PQ, Marie Malavoy, said that all it really means is that the voters want change.

It's not a sign of health in a two-term government when members of the governing party begin to speak of a desire for change. Often, the next step is for them to start saying that the head of government "has a decision to make," the decision being to create at least an appearance of change by stepping aside in favour of a new leader. Usually, it doesn't work, for the simple reason that it's hard for a second-term government to represent change.

- Don Macpherson is The Gazette's Quebec-affairs columnist, based in Montreal. His E-mail address is dmacpher@thegazette.southam.ca.