Exodus makes Quebec a loser Migration figures contain troubling news for the province DON MACPHERSON The Gazette Saturday 20 February 1999

Well, I've gone over the figures that came out of Ottawa this week, and it's true: Quebec definitely comes out a loser.

No, not the figures in Paul Martin's budget. The ones on migration, both interprovincial and international, published by Statistics Canada.

The figures are for movements of people between 1996 and 1997. They're based on addresses supplied on personal-income-tax returns filed in the springs of the two years as well as population estimates.

For interprovincial migration, they show that eight provinces and territories lost more residents to other parts of the country than they gained from them. Only Alberta, British Columbia, Ontario and Prince Edward Island showed net gains.

Quebec had an interprovincial migratory deficit of 17,400. That may not seem like much, compared with this province's population of more than 7 million, but it was the largest of the net losses.

What's more, Quebec keeps losing people to the rest of the country at a faster rate. That one-year net loss of 17,400 represents almost half the comparable figure of 37,400 for the five years between the last two censuses. And that five-year figure had increased by nearly 50 per cent from the previous one.

If there was any good news for Quebec in this week's numbers, it was that, thanks to international immigration, this province ended up gaining more migrants than it lost. Quebec was the third-most-popular destination for immigrants. And with a net international gain of 26,700, Quebec showed an over-all net migratory increase of 9,300.

But even here, the news for Quebec isn't all good. Once again, this province failed to attract its share of immigrants, as it's been failing to do for several years. It received only 13 per cent of immigrants, about half its share of the country's population, which is 24 per cent.

Taken together, these figures point to a conclusion that in the competition among the provinces and territories to attract and hold citizens, taxpayers and consumers, Quebec keeps on losing, year after year.

Never mind the rejection of distinct-society status for Quebec. Canadians, as well as new immigrants, are rejecting this province as a place to live.

There are a number of obvious possible explanations for our migratory losing streak.

Perhaps the most important one is the economy. It's no coincidence that among people moving from one province or territory to another between 1996 and 1997, Alberta was the most popular destination. StatsCan attributed this to job-seekers attracted by news of that province's growing economy.

Perhaps it's not a coincidence, either, that the latest figures are for the two years immediately following the 1995 referendum scare. So political uncertainty here was probably another factor.

And probably, so was language, in several ways. StatsCan didn't provide a breakdown of its latest migration figures by language.

But it did for the 1996 census figures. And it found then that people whose mother tongue was English accounted for nearly two-thirds of Quebec's net interprovincial loss between the 1991 and 1996 censuses, though they made up only 9 per cent of the province's population. So it's reasonable to assume a similar pattern in the latest figures.

Anglophones who don't speak French would be understandably reluctant to move to Quebec. The province's reputation for being inhospitable to anglophones, while deserved more by its current government than by the general population, wouldn't help, either. Obviously, the language factor makes it easier for anglophones to move from Quebec to the rest of Canada than the other way around.

But if it weren't for language, Quebec might be losing people at an even faster rate. While language acts as a barrier to keep anglophones out of this province, it also keeps francophones in. Moving to English-speaking Canada is not an option for the majority of francophones who are unilingual. If they're dissatisfied with, say, the level of taxes or public services in Quebec, they have no choice but to stay here.

So, among other things, language protects Quebec from the need to be competitive with other jurisdictions in order to attract and hold people.